What happened

On 2 November 2026, a week before the COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) published State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot, reviewed by more than 50 cryosphere scientists, alongside a joint report with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown. As Ajit Niranjan reported for the Guardian, the scientists say even a temporary rise above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit would do lasting harm to glaciers and polar ice. The main findings, checked against the report itself:

  • Where we are: warming is about 1.4°C today. Current emissions and policies lead to a high overshoot peaking at 2.8 to 3.2°C.
  • Ice is already going: the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting about six times faster than in the 1990s, and ICCI says Switzerland has lost 20% of its glacier ice in the past five years.
  • 1.5°C is not safe for ice: the report says a safe long-term limit for the polar ice sheets lies at or below 1.0°C, and that even holding at 1.5°C would put more than half the world's glaciers, by number, at risk of disappearing.
  • At around 3°C: nearly all mid-latitude glaciers outside the highest mountains would be lost, nearly all near-surface permafrost would thaw, and severe disruption to ocean circulation would become extremely likely.
  • The best case still overshoots: on the report's highest ambition pathway temperatures peak at about 1.7°C for around 20 years, then fall below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C by 2150. That needs net zero CO2 by about 2045 and net zero greenhouse gases in the 2060s, with renewables tripled by 2030.

The carbon number: permafrost

Permafrost is frozen ground holding thousands of years of plant and soil carbon. When it thaws, microbes break that carbon down and release carbon dioxide and methane, and the report says they keep doing so for centuries. It finds today's permafrost region is already a net source of emissions on the scale of a large industrialised country, and that how much more it releases depends on how high and how long temperatures overshoot:

  • Warming held close to 1.5°C: around 25 billion tonnes CO2e this century.
  • At 2°C: an additional 55 billion tonnes CO2e by 2100.
  • Overshoot to 3 to 4°C: up to 230 billion tonnes CO2e by 2100, which the report likens to adding another United States or China.

To put those numbers in UK terms, we compared them with the Office for National Statistics' provisional figure for UK territorial emissions in 2025, 367 million tonnes CO2e. At that rate, 25 billion tonnes is about 68 years of everything the UK emits, the extra 55 billion tonnes at 2°C is about 150 years, and 230 billion tonnes is about 627 years. None of it is counted in any company's or country's footprint, and none of it can be switched off once the ground has thawed, which is why the report says the peak temperature matters so much.

What it means for your business

No rule changes. The report is science for the negotiators at COP31, not a new duty. UK reporting under SECR, carbon reduction plans for public contracts and the UK ETS stay as they are.

The direction of travel is firmer. The report's message is that every tenth of a degree and every year above 1.5°C adds permanent damage, so the pressure behind national targets, and behind customers asking their suppliers for emissions figures and reduction targets, is unlikely to ease.

Physical risk is part of the picture. Faster ice loss means faster sea-level rise, and the report links overshoot to more extreme heat, floods and changes to ocean currents that shape northern Europe's weather. Tenders and TCFD-style reports increasingly ask about flood and heat risk at your sites; our climate risk assessment guide explains what is asked for.

A worked example: what a 10% cut looks like

Take an illustrative business using 40,000 kWh of electricity and 60,000 kWh of gas a year. On the 2026 government factors:

  • Electricity (Scope 2): 40,000 kWh at 0.13096 kg CO2e per kWh is 5.24 tonnes CO2e.
  • Gas (Scope 1): 60,000 kWh at 0.18231 kg CO2e per kWh is 10.94 tonnes CO2e.
  • In all, 16.18 tonnes CO2e a year. Cutting both by 10% saves 1.62 tonnes every year it holds.

One business's tonnes are tiny next to billions, but national totals are made of them: the UK's 367 million tonnes is the sum of every boiler, vehicle and kWh in the country.

What to do now

  1. Know your footprint. Add up your gas, electricity and fuel for the last 12 months and convert them with the right year's government factors. Our guide to Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions explains what goes where.
  2. Set a target you can show. A dated baseline and a yearly reduction target are what customers and public buyers ask for. The free carbon reduction plan template sets one out in the government's format.
  3. Check your sites' exposure. If you have premises near rivers or the coast, note the flood risk now; it is the physical side of the same story.