What happened

On 3 November 2026, six days before the COP31 summit opens in Antalya, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago and chief executive Ana Toni presented the COP30 Presidency Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels at the UN Development Programme's office in Brazil. As Fiona Harvey reported for the Guardian, it is the first global roadmap of its kind, promised at the end of COP30 in Belém after countries could not agree fossil fuel wording in the final deal. The main points, checked against the roadmap itself:

  • It concludes that moving away from fossil fuels is "urgent, inevitable and yet possible", and that every country can start now, whatever its starting point.
  • Coal, oil and gas account for about 73% of global greenhouse gas emissions, which reached 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024. Renewables made up more than 85% of the power capacity added worldwide in 2025.
  • It puts human-induced warming at 1.37°C in 2025 and says some overshoot of 1.5°C is now inevitable; how small and short it is depends on how fast emissions fall this decade.
  • At its centre is the Belém Readiness Approach: each country scores its exposure to fossil fuels and its capacity to change on three pillars (energy demand, energy supply and the wider economy) and picks matching actions.
  • It proposes a shared agenda, the TAFF Mutirão, in three phases: to 2028 (planning, fossil fuel subsidy reform, methane and routine flaring), 2029 to 2030 (electrification, efficiency, grids and storage, plus carbon accounting and taxonomies) and 2031 to 2033 (the main push on supply).
  • It drew 267 contributions, 21 of them from Parties or groups representing 115 Parties. It is voluntary, not negotiated, and in its own words "sets no targets or timelines for any country".

Not everyone thinks that goes far enough. The Guardian quotes Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London, who said the roadmaps "fall short of clearly indicating the pace of change needed". As Michael Holder asked for BusinessGreen, the question now is whether countries will follow them.

What it means for your business

No new rule today. The roadmap is advice to governments, and the UK has not adopted it. SECR, Carbon Reduction Plans, the UK ETS, UK CBAM and the UK Sustainability Reporting Standards are unchanged.

Carbon accounting is one of its levers. The roadmap asks countries to strengthen transparency, carbon accounting and sustainable finance taxonomies, finishing that work by 2030. Its example is the plan by the GHG Protocol and ISO to merge their corporate standards into one global standard. The roadmap says comparable product-level emissions data can help carbon intensity count in buying decisions, which is the direction tenders and supplier questionnaires are already heading.

Oil and gas supply chains are in the spotlight first. It says oil and gas operations emit around 5 GtCO2e a year, close to 15% of energy-related emissions, and that operators could cut about three-quarters of their methane and some 95% of flaring-related emissions with existing technology. If you supply that industry, expect more questions about your own figures. Our post on the US and EU methane rules covers the latest on methane regulation.

A worked example: your own fossil fuel emissions

Transitioning away from fossil fuels starts with knowing how much you burn. Take an illustrative business that heats its premises with 60,000 kWh of gas a year and runs vans on 4,000 litres of diesel.

  • Gas: 60,000 kWh at 0.18231 kg CO2e per kWh is 10.94 tonnes CO2e (Scope 1).
  • Diesel: 4,000 litres at 2.58354 kg CO2e per litre is 10.33 tonnes CO2e (Scope 1).
  • Together: 21.27 tonnes CO2e a year from fuel burnt on site and on the road.
  • If the 85% efficient gas boiler were replaced by a heat pump with a seasonal efficiency of 3 delivering the same 51,000 kWh of heat, it would use 17,000 kWh of electricity: at 0.13096 kg CO2e per kWh that is 2.23 tonnes CO2e (Scope 2), a cut of about 80% in heating emissions on today's grid.

Figures use the 2026 government conversion factors, the same ones a SECR report or a Carbon Reduction Plan would use.

What to do now

  1. Add up your fuel. Pull a year of gas, oil, diesel and petrol from bills and fuel cards and convert it with the kWh to CO2e calculator. See Scope 1, 2 and 3 explained for what goes where.
  2. Plan the switches that last decades. Boilers, vans and machinery are replaced every 10 to 20 years, so the next replacement is when to choose. The roadmap's own point is that assets bought today decide what is possible later.
  3. Set a target in tonnes and write it down: our net zero guide and the free Carbon Reduction Plan template show how.