What happened
Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, published its quarterly greenhouse gas estimates for April to June 2026 on 13 November. As first reported by Carbon Pulse, emissions dipped over the quarter while the economy grew, but were up on a year earlier. The figures in Eurostat's own data:
- Total: 833 million tonnes CO2e seasonally adjusted, down from 837 million in January to March, a fall of 0.5%.
- Against a year earlier: 779 million tonnes unadjusted, against 772 million in the second quarter of 2025, a rise of 1.0% (1.4% on seasonally adjusted figures).
- The economy: EU GDP grew 0.7% on the previous quarter and 1.4% on a year earlier.
By sector, seasonally adjusted, the change on the first quarter and on a year earlier:
| Sector | On Q1 2026 | On Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity and gas supply | -2.7% | +3.5% |
| Households (heating, cars) | -1.1% | -1.2% |
| Transport and storage | -0.1% | +2.0% |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | +0.2% | +1.4% |
| Manufacturing | +0.2% | +1.3% |
| Services (except transport) | +0.5% | +2.1% |
| Water supply and waste | +0.9% | +3.1% |
| Construction | +1.3% | +2.8% |
| Mining and quarrying | +1.3% | +3.2% |
Power stations and households did the falling over the quarter. Over the year, almost every business sector rose, with electricity and gas supply up the most. These are Eurostat's estimates from its air emissions accounts, which count emissions by the industry that caused them (see Eurostat's explainer), so they differ from the annual inventories the EU reports to the UN.
What it means for your business
For the EU, a quarter where emissions fell while GDP grew is the decoupling policymakers want, but the year-on-year rise shows how easily it slips when power stations burn more fossil fuel. For a UK business the figures change no rules. They matter if you have EU sites or EU suppliers, since the power sector figure feeds through into the electricity behind goods you buy, and if a customer compares your figures with national trends.
The same split, activity against factors, is how to explain your own year-on-year change. Take an illustrative UK business with £5 million turnover that used 250,000 kWh of electricity and 400,000 kWh of gas in 2025, and grew 1.4% in 2026, the same as EU GDP, using 1.4% more of both:
- 2025, on the 2025 government factors: 117.43 tonnes CO2e, or 23.5 tonnes per £1 million turnover.
- 2026, on the 2026 factors: 107.14 tonnes CO2e, or 21.1 tonnes per £1 million, a change of -9%.
- 2026 use on the 2025 factors: 119.08 tonnes. So the business itself used more energy; the fall comes from a cleaner UK grid in the 2026 electricity factor.
Reporting that fall as your own saving would overstate it. SECR asks larger companies for an intensity ratio and a narrative of what they did to save energy (see the government's Environmental Reporting Guidelines and our SECR guide), and showing which part came from the grid and which from your own action is what makes that narrative credible.
What to do now
- Split your change into activity and factors. Work out this year's use on last year's factors as well as this year's, so you can say how much of the change is yours.
- Report an intensity ratio. Tonnes per £1 million turnover, per employee or per unit made shows whether you are decoupling, the same test Eurostat applies to the EU economy. Our footprint guide shows how to choose one.
- If you have EU sites, use their own grid factor. EU power sector emissions rose over the year; an EU site's electricity should be reported on that country's factor, not the UK's. For the EU carbon market's latest changes, see our report on the extra free allowances.
