China's clean-tech exports to avoid 450 million tonnes of CO2 in 2026. What it means for how you count solar

경과

Carbon Brief published new analysis on 29 October 2026 of how much CO2 China's clean-energy exports avoid in the countries that buy them. The analysis is by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, writing for Carbon Brief. Its main estimates:

• China's 2026 exports of solar, wind, electric vehicles and batteries are on track to avoid around 450 million tonnes of CO2, nearly 2% of global emissions outside China and roughly equal to Brazil's annual fossil fuel emissions.
• The effect grew 26% year on year in the first three quarters of 2026, after rising 36% in 2025.
• Solar is by far the biggest part. China exported panels and parts equal to 436 gigawatts of capacity in 2025, which the analysis expects to avoid about 6,400 million tonnes of CO2 over their lifetimes.
• Manufacturing the exported equipment produced around 170 million tonnes of CO2 in China in 2025, against 370 million tonnes avoided abroad that year: a payback of about six months in aggregate, the analysis says.
• Western Europe was the largest destination for Chinese electric cars and heavy vehicles in the first three quarters of 2026, and the analysis names the UK among the countries whose own electric vehicle exports have also grown.

The method credits each exported solar panel or wind turbine with displacing average grid electricity in the country that installs it, and each electric vehicle with displacing the fuel of an equivalent petrol or diesel vehicle. That is why the same panel counts for far more in India than in Europe: the analysis finds a gigawatt of solar in the US avoids three times as much CO2 as one in the EU, because US panels get more sun and US power is more carbon intensive.

기업에 미치는 영향

The panels on UK roofs are part of this story. The analysis describes China as the pre-eminent producer of clean-energy technology, so solar panels, batteries and electric vans bought by UK businesses often come from its factories. Their climate effect depends on where they are installed: the UK's grid is cleaner than Germany's, the US's or India's, so each panel here displaces less CO2 than it would there.

Avoided emissions are not a deduction. National and global estimates like this one add up the CO2 that clean technology displaces. Company carbon reporting works differently. Under the GHG Protocol, solar power you use yourself lowers your Scope 2 because you buy less from the grid; it does not let you subtract a figure for emissions avoided elsewhere, and power you export does not reduce your reported total. Our guide to rooftop solar and Scope 2 sets out the rules.

The manufacturing emissions land in your Scope 3. Panels, batteries and vehicles you buy and keep are capital goods, Scope 3 category 2, in the year you buy them. A six-month payback across all of China's exports does not mean six months for your panels on a UK roof, where the grid they displace is cleaner.

A worked example: the same solar output in four countries

Take 10,000 kWh of solar output (an example figure) and credit it with displacing average grid electricity, as the analysis does. Using Ember's grid intensity figures for each country:

The same output displaces about 3.1 times as much CO2 in India as in the UK. These are lifecycle figures for each country's generation, used here only to compare grids; they are not the factors for a UK carbon report.

For your own report, the rule is different. An illustrative UK business that uses 30,000 kWh of its own solar output on site a year buys that much less grid electricity. At the 2026 government factor of 0.13096 kg CO2e per kWh, its location-based Scope 2 is 3.93 tonnes CO2e lower than it would have been. That fall shows up in the Scope 2 figure itself; there is no separate "avoided" line to subtract.

지금 해야 할 일

1. Report solar the right way round. Count only the grid electricity you bought in Scope 2, and include your own solar output in your total energy use. Our rooftop solar guide has the details.
2. Ask for the panels' footprint. When you buy panels, batteries or vehicles, ask the supplier for an environmental product declaration or a manufacturing CO2e figure, so the capital goods line in your Scope 3 is not a guess.
3. Keep any "avoided" claim separate. If you want to say what your panels avoid, show it apart from your Scope 1, 2 and 3 totals, explain the method, and never present it as a reduction in your own emissions.
4. Compare grids before quoting international figures. Our electricity factors by country show why the same panel counts differently in each country.