Ce s-a întâmplat

Three reports on the coming winter came out on 23 October 2026. As Michael Race reported for BBC News, the National Energy System Operator (NESO), which runs Britain's electricity system, said the lights will stay on, while National Gas, which runs the gas transmission network, said it expected enough supply to meet demand. Lucy King reported for Energy Live News on the figures in both outlooks. The same afternoon the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) published its statutory national risk assessment on security of gas supply. The main points, checked against each organisation's own publication:

  • Electricity (NESO Winter Outlook 2026/27): an operational surplus of 5.9GW, equal to a 9.5% buffer above NESO's assessment of peak demand, broadly similar to last winter and higher than during the 2022 energy crisis. NESO modelled every day from 31 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 with 30,000 scenarios a day. Colder weather can still bring tighter days, when it may issue Capacity Market Notices or Electricity Margin Notices, which it calls routine and not a sign of risk to supplies.
  • Gas (National Gas Gas Winter Outlook 2026): peak demand on a 1-in-20 winter day of 493 million cubic metres a day, around 2% higher than last year because of more gas-fired power generation, against supply capability of 592. Overall gas demand is forecast to fall around 1%, North Sea production around 5%, and LNG imports to rise around 6%.
  • Gas security (DESNZ risk assessment): the UK gas market "remains resilient and is expected to continue to meet security of gas supply requirements". The UK meets the legal N-1 standard for winter 2026/27 with a score of 103.6%, meaning the system could meet demand on an exceptionally cold day even if its single largest piece of infrastructure failed. The risks it names are geopolitical instability, global LNG competition, changing storage and interconnector economics, sudden peak demand, cyber threats and severe weather. It says none is expected to undermine supply in the near term.

Ce înseamnă pentru o firmă mică

Supply is expected to hold, but price and weather are still the risks. DESNZ says many European storage sites go into winter with less gas than in recent years and that competition for LNG may mean the UK pays higher prices for gas at times of system stress. It also notes that the developing El Niño could bring a wetter, stormier autumn and early winter, and possibly colder, stiller weather later, which raises gas demand for both heating and power. None of the reports forecasts prices and neither do we. For what businesses have actually paid, DESNZ's survey of suppliers put the average at 5.28p per kWh for gas and 24.51p for electricity in Q2 2026, including the Climate Change Levy. The free business electricity and gas prices tool shows every quarter by business size.

Winter is the season your footprint grows. Gas burned in a boiler is Scope 1 at 0.18231 kg CO2e per kWh, and electricity is Scope 2 at 0.13096 on the 2026 government factors. Your footprint follows your kWh, not the price, so a dearer bill does not by itself mean higher emissions. National Gas expects more gas-fired power at peak times when wind is low; the grid factor you report against is an average for the whole year, so that does not change your calculation either. The GB electricity generation mix tool shows how much power comes from gas each month.

A worked example: one winter quarter

Take an illustrative small office heated by gas. From January to March it uses 15,000 kWh of gas and 9,000 kWh of electricity. From July to September, with the heating off, it uses 2,500 kWh of gas for hot water and 7,000 kWh of electricity.

  • Winter quarter: 2.73 tonnes CO2e from gas (Scope 1) plus 1.18 tonnes from electricity (Scope 2), a total of 3.91 tonnes.
  • Summer quarter: 0.46 tonnes from gas plus 0.92 tonnes from electricity, 1.37 tonnes in all.
  • So the winter quarter's emissions are about 2.9 times the summer quarter's, and most of the extra comes from heating.
  • Trimming the winter gas by 10%, for example by matching heating times to opening hours or turning the setpoint down a degree, saves 0.27 tonnes CO2e in that quarter alone.

At the Q2 2026 average business gas price above, the winter quarter's gas would cost about £792. That is a past average, not a forecast; use your own unit rate. Whatever prices do this winter, a kWh you don't use costs nothing and emits nothing.

Ce trebuie făcut acum

  1. Record kWh every month. Take a meter reading at the start of each month or use your bills, and log gas and electricity separately. Our guide to turning a gas meter reading into kWh and CO2e shows the conversion.
  2. Check the heating before the cold arrives. Timers, setpoints and weekend schedules left from last winter are the usual source of wasted gas.
  3. Know your contract. Find out when your fixed rate ends and whether your price follows the wholesale market. Our post on why expensive gas is behind most of the rise in electricity bills explains how gas prices feed through.
  4. Note the weather. If a cold snap or storm pushes use up, write it down. It explains the spike when you compare years or set a reduction target.