UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: 1.5°C overshoot and what it means for your targets

On 21 October 2026 the UN Environment Programme published its Emissions Gap Report 2026, saying warming will now overshoot 1.5°C and that global emissions must fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, from 2025 levels, to bring it back down by 2100. For a small UK business, nothing in the rules changes, but customers, the SBTi and public buyers will keep asking for a near-term absolute target and proof of real cuts.

Päivitetty 21. lokakuuta 2026, Carbon Recycling -tiimi. Luvuissa käytetään Iso-Britannian hallituksen virallisia muuntokertoimia, ja ne on tarkistettu gov.uk-sivuston ajantasaisesta ohjeistuksesta.

What happened

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return, on Wednesday 21 October 2026. It is UNEP's yearly comparison of where global emissions are heading with where they need to be. UN News, the UN's own news service, summarised the findings the same day, and Carbon Brief and Climate Home News covered it. We checked the figures below against UN News.

1.5°C will be exceeded. After decades of emissions not falling fast enough, passing 1.5°C can no longer be avoided.
A "lowest possible" overshoot pathway limits peak warming to 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century, then brings it back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
That needs global emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all compared with 2025.
Current policies point to 2.8°C this century, and delivering every national climate plan to 2.6°C. Both are worse than last year's projections.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message with the report: "Overshoot is not surrender." Climate Home News adds that, on UNEP's figures, the pathway also relies on removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century.

What it means for your business

The report is written for governments and changes no UK reporting rule. Its effect on a small firm comes through the people who already ask you about carbon. Large customers with their own science-based targets need their suppliers' emissions to fall, which is why they send questionnaires and, increasingly, ask suppliers to set targets of their own. Public buyers using PPN 006 already ask for a Carbon Reduction Plan with a net zero commitment and reduction targets. A report saying the world is further off track gives all of them more reason to ask for figures that show real, absolute cuts rather than intentions.

UNEP's percentages are global and should not be copied straight into a company target. The usual benchmark for a small firm is the Science Based Targets initiative's minimum for Scope 1 and 2: an absolute cut of 4.2% for every year between your base year and your target year. Our guide to science-based targets for SMEs explains the route and how it changes in 2027.

Laskuesimerkki

Take an illustrative small office that in 2025 used 30,000 kWh of grid electricity and 60,000 kWh of mains gas. With the 2025 government factors (0.177 kg CO2e per kWh of electricity and 0.18296 kg per kWh of gas), that is 5.31 tonnes from electricity and 10.98 tonnes from gas: 16.29 tonnes CO2e in total, with gas making up 67%.

A target submitted in 2026 has to run at least five years, so the earliest target year is 2031. The SBTi's minimum from a 2025 base is then 4.2% × 6 = 25.2%, taking the office to 12.18 tonnes: about 4.10 tonnes less each year. For comparison, UNEP's global 45% cut by 2035 would take it to 8.96 tonnes. With most of the footprint coming from gas, heating is where the biggest cut is.

What to do now

Measure a full year. Gather a year of electricity, gas, fuel and travel figures and calculate your Scope 1 and 2. If your early records are patchy, see how to pick a baseline year.
Set a near-term absolute target, in tonnes rather than per pound of turnover, for a year five to ten years out. If a customer has asked for one, read when a customer asks you to set a science-based target.
Go after the biggest sources first. For most offices that is heating and electricity; for trades and delivery firms it is vehicle fuel. Measure each year and keep the kWh and litres alongside the tonnes, so progress is visible.
Keep the baseline honest. If you buy or sell part of the business or improve your method, you may need to recalculate it: see restating your baseline.

Offsets do not close your own gap

Some firms respond to reports like this by buying carbon credits. That is a separate decision. Under the GHG Protocol your inventory reports your actual emissions, and the SBTi's SME criteria say carbon credits may not be counted toward target progress. If you are weighing credits up, our guide to carbon offsetting and the post on offsets versus removals set out what each can and can't claim.

Miten Carbon Recycling auttaa

Carbon Recycling turns your energy, fuel and travel figures into Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions with the right year's government factors, the same engine used for the example above. Its Carbon Reduction Plan report takes your baseline year, a target year and a percentage cut, and draws the path from your baseline to that target and on to net zero, so you can set a 25.2% target and see your latest year plotted against it. To start, try the free Carbon Reduction Plan template or the kWh to CO2e calculator.

Usein kysytyt kysymykset

What did the Emissions Gap Report 2026 say?

UNEP's report, The Point of Return, published on 21 October 2026, says warming will pass 1.5°C and that the overshoot can no longer be avoided. Its lowest overshoot pathway limits peak warming to 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century and brings it back to 1.5°C by 2100, which needs global emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025.

Does the report change any UK reporting rules?

No. It is a global assessment for governments, not a regulation. SECR, PPN 006 Carbon Reduction Plans and the SBTi's criteria are unchanged by it. What it changes is the context: customers and buyers who already ask for targets have one more reason to ask.

Can I apply UNEP's percentages to my own business?

They are global figures, not a target for any one company. A small firm that wants a recognised benchmark usually uses the SBTi's minimum for Scope 1 and 2: an absolute cut of 4.2% for each year between the base year and the target year. From a 2025 base to 2031, that is 25.2%.

Do carbon offsets count towards my target?

Not under the SBTi's criteria for SMEs, which say carbon credits may not be counted toward target progress. The GHG Protocol also keeps any credits you buy separate from your inventory. You can still buy them for other reasons, but your reported Scope 1 and 2 only falls when your own emissions do.

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